Taliban Takes Kabul: U.S. Embassy Shuttered, Afghans Crowd Airport Hoping for Evacuation

UPDATE 8/16/21

• As of Monday morning, evacuation flights out of Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul are paused temporarily as NATO personnel attempt to secure the facility. Many Afghans have been lining the tarmac, with some clambering onto military transport jets as they taxi down the runway.
• Two Afghans fell to their deaths after trying to cling to the landing gear after takeoff, while another was found crushed to death in the landing gear bay.
• There are preliminary reports that one U.S. servicemember has been injured at the airport, and that American military personnel shot and killed two Afghans who had opened fire on the crowd.
• An additional battalion of 1,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division’s brigade combat team is being diverted from Kuwait to help secure the Kabul airport. That will bring the total number of U.S. military personnel at the airport to near 7,000 once they all arrive.
• On the streets of Kabul, there are reports that the Taliban are starting to go house-to-house searching for people who worked with the U.S. or served in the Afghan security forces.

The original article appears below.

What’s the story?

• The Taliban completed its bid to retake Afghanistan over the weekend by seizing the nation’s capital, Kabul, prompting the country’s president to flee into exile and the U.S. and other Western nations to evacuate their embassies while rushing military assets to the region to protect their citizens amid the hasty withdrawal. 
• The Taliban’s offensive against the Afghan security forces has been underway since the seasonal fighting season began in May but intensified into a blitzkrieg in the last week. As of August 7th, the Taliban had operational control of about two-thirds of Afghanistan’s territory but only one of its provincial capitals, but by August 12th, they controlled at least 12 provincial capitals. By August 15th, 33 of Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals were under Taliban control, in addition to Kabul, as resistance by Afghan security forces collapsed.

What’s happening in Kabul?

• Reports emerged early Sunday that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani had fled the country to Tajikistan before traveling to Oman. Ghani announced later that he had fled to prevent further bloodshed by stepping aside for the Taliban, whose occupation of the presidential palace in Kabul was documented by a camera crew from Al Jazeera.
• As of Sunday night U.S. time, NATO forces including roughly 6,000 U.S. troops are on hand to secure the Kabul International Airport. The U.S. Embassy in Kabul was fully evacuated Sunday, with the American flag hauled down and the ambassador among the personnel ferried to the airport by helicopter for evacuation. Embassy staff had begun the process of destroying or removing sensitive documents and technology last week, and a State Dept. spokesperson said that all staff had been moved to the airport.
• The American contingent securing the airport includes the roughly 1,000 military personnel who were already in the country amid the ongoing drawdown; 2,000 Marines and 1,000 Army soldiers who were deployed late last week to keep control of the airport and U.S. Embassy; plus 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division who were initially slated to serve as part of a quick reaction force stationed in Kuwait but were routed to Kabul as the security situation deteriorated over the weekend. 
• About 500 British troops and 500 Turkish troops are also at the airport providing security for it. As of Sunday night U.S. time, the NATO personnel securing the airport reportedly have not engaged in combat with the Taliban, which hasn’t tried to overrun the airport.
• U.S. military transport aircraft, together with those of allies like the United Kingdom, are conducting a “Kabul airlift” of sorts to evacuate personnel from the embassies of the U.S. and other nations, citizens of those countries, and Afghans who worked for those countries as interpreters along with their immediate family members. Many Afghans hoping to evacuate have packed into the tarmac and terminals of the Kabul International Airport, and embassy staff at the airport are processing paperwork for Afghans seeking to come to the U.S. via Special Immigrant Visas (SIVs).
• Of the roughly 18,000 Afghans eligible for SIVs, about 2,000 had arrived in the U.S. as of the last two weeks. The Dept. of Defense is reportedly preparing to bring up to 30,000 Afghan SIVs into the U.S. in the near future, although the number of would-be evacuees including family members is likely much larger as thousands remain in Afghanistan with their family members, where they will face reprisals and possible death if they stay under Taliban rule.

Taliban Surge Surpasses Intelligence Estimates

• The Taliban’s gains in recent weeks have come at a far more rapid pace than U.S. defense and intelligence officials projected earlier this year after the Afghanistan withdrawal was announced this spring, even after accounting for the reduction in U.S. assistance. 
• President Joe Biden initially set September 11th as the withdrawal date, pushing back a May date set by former President Donald Trump, but then moved up the withdrawal date to August 31st. The U.S. had about 2,500 troops in Afghanistan who were providing support and training for the Afghans, and operating residual airpower when the drawdown began this spring. By last week, the number of American troops in the country was between 650 and 1,000.
• In April, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released its annual unclassified report of worldwide threats to U.S. national security which warned at the time:

“The Taliban is likely to make gains on the battlefield, the Afghan Government will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support. Kabul continues to face setbacks on the battlefield, and the Taliban is confident it can achieve military victory.”

• An analysis by U.S. defense and intelligence officials in late June found that the Afghan government could fall to the Taliban in as little as six months after the U.S. withdrawal was completed. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in June told the House Foreign Affairs Committee the following about a potential Taliban takeover:

“I don’t think it’s going to be something that happens from a Friday to a Monday. I wouldn’t necessarily equate the departure of our forces in July, August, or by early September with some kind of immediate deterioration.”

• President Joe Biden announced that he was moving up the withdrawal timeline from September 11th to August 31st on July 8th and said: 

“The likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.” 

• At the time, Biden rejected comparisons of the Afghan government’s collapse to the fall of Saigon to the North Vietnamese two years after the conclusion of the Vietnam War, saying the Taliban is “not remotely comparable in terms of capability.” He added:

“There’s going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of a embassy in the ― of the United States from Afghanistan. It is not at all comparable.”

• As of early August, defense and intelligence officials believed that the Taliban may be able to isolate Kabul, within 30 days and could take control of it within 90 days amid the terror group’s rapid gains. By August 14th, that timeline had been compressed further to as little as 72 hours before Kabul’s capitulation, prompting the deployment of additional American troops on top of the 3,000 more than last week, but as of August 15th the Taliban seized control of all of Kabul except for the international airport.

RELATED READING

• Taliban Makes Rapid Gains in Afghanistan, U.S. Sends 3,000 Troops to Secure Drawdown of Embassy Staff (8/12/21)
• Afghans Who Aided U.S. Military Against the Taliban Begin to Arrive in America as Evacuation Ramps Up (7/30/21)
• Biden Moves Up Afghanistan Withdrawal Date From September 11th to August 31st (7/8/21)
• U.S. Military Withdraws From Bagram Air Base as Afghanistan Drawdown Continues (7/3/21)
• Biden Urged to Expedite Visas for Afghan Interpreters Facing Taliban Death Threats or There Will Be ‘Blood on His Hands’ After U.S. Withdrawal (6/22/21)
• Biden Sets September 11th Withdrawal Date From Afghanistan, Drawing Bipartisan Criticism (4/14/21)

— Eric Revell

(Photo Credit: Flight Out of Kabul: DoD photo by Lisa Ferdinando via U.S. Secretary of Defense Flickr / Public Domain | Taliban: SeHi via Flickr / Creative Commons)