Antarctic Ice Melt in 21st Century Is Inevitable, New Report

What’s the story?

• Scientists believe rapid ice melt in west Antarctica is inevitable in this century, no matter how much climate initiatives cut carbon emissions.
• The new report used a high-resolution computer model of the Amundsen Sea and found that increased rates of melting in the 21st century were inescapable in all plausible scenarios for cutting fossil fuels, even in the most ambitious Paris Agreement targets of keeping global heating below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

What the report says

• Experts say the report implies “dire” consequences from the sea level rise that will come with the rapid ice melt. Melted ice sheets of west Antarctica would push up the sea level by 5 meters.
• The analysis shows the rate of melting of ice shelves floating in the Amundsen Sea will be three times faster this century compared to the 20th century. Previous studies led researchers to believe that the ice sheets would collapse over the course of centuries, but this report shows that almost nothing can slow the melting in the next 80 years. 
• According to the research, some coastal cities may have to be fully abandoned. More than a third of the global population lives within 60 miles of the coast. 

What scientists are saying 

• Ocean modeler Kaitlin Naughten, the researcher who led the study at the British Antarctic Survey, said:

“Our study is not great news – we may have lost control of west Antarctic ice shelf melting over the 21st century. It is one impact of climate change that we are probably just going to have to adapt to, and very likely this means some coastal communities will either have to build [defenses] or be abandoned.”

• Naughten continued:

“We already have a refugee crisis in the world, and [sea level rise] will only make it worse. How are we going to deal with the displacement of millions of people, or possibly over a billion people, depending on the amount of sea level rise?”

• The University of Colorado Boulder Glaciologist Ted Scambos described the study as “sobering.” Scambos said stopping the rapid ice melt would be “a real challenge.” He continued:

“People who are alive today are going to see a significant increase in the rate of sea level rise in all the coastal cities around the world.”

• Dr. Taimoor Sohail, from the University of New South Wales, said:

“The collapse of the west Antarctic ice sheet is a worrying climate tipping point. This assessment suggests that accelerated melting of ice shelves is locked in. The implications for sea-level rise are dire.”

• Senior research scientist Tiago Segabinazzi Dotto of the U.K. National Oceanography Center turned to lawmakers, saying:

“The conclusions of the work are based on a single model and need to be treated carefully. [This] gives confidence that this study needs to be taken in consideration for policymakers.”

Are you concerned about sea level rise?

-Jamie Epstein

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