Scientists Concerned About High Ocean Temperature as El Niño Approaches

What's the story?

• The oceans are rapidly heating up, causing alarm among scientists who fear it will exacerbate the climate crisis. 
• New research found that over the past 15 years, the Earth has accumulated almost as much heat as it did in the previous 45 years, with most of the extra energy going into the oceans. 
• This April, the global sea surface reached a new record high temperature, increasing quicker than ever before and baffling scientists. Experts worry that the temperature could reach a concerning level by the end of next year, especially with recent record-breaking heatwaves and extreme weather events. 
• Additionally, weather analysts expect an intense El Niño event over the next few months, and they predict that the heat it will add to the ocean will have signification implications. 

The impact of warmer oceans

• Warmer oceans can be deadly to marine life, leading to mass loss of sea species; cause extreme weather events, meaning more intense and long-lasting hurricanes and cyclones; raise sea levels, accelerating the melting of glaciers and increasing risks of coastal flooding; and be less efficient at absorbing greenhouse gases — even a slight increase in average surface temperature impacts the oceans' ability to soak up CO2, resulting in the loss of a major carbon sink. 
• When asked about any reasons as to why this increase is occurring, Karina Von Schuckmann, lead author of the new study and oceanographer at the research group Mercator Ocean International, said: 

"It's not yet well established, why such a rapid change, and such a huge change is happening. We have doubled the heat in the climate system the last 15 years, I don't want to say this is climate change, or natural variability or a mixture of both, we don't know yet. But we do see this change."

The effects of El Niño

• The El Niño Southern Oscillation is another crucial factor that worries scientists. Over the past three years, this naturally occurring event has been in a cooler phase called La Niña, which has kept global temperatures at lower levels.
• Researchers now fear that a strong El Niño is forming, which will have worrying consequences. An Australian Bureau's model predicts that a powerful El Niño will likely disrupt global weather patterns, weaken the monsoon season, and threaten more wildfires.
• A coastal El Niño is already developing off the shore of Peru and Ecuador. Dr. Josef Ludescher from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research predicts that El Niño would add an additional 0.2-0.25C to the 0.9C increase scientists have already recorded. He added: 

"The impact on the temperature is relaxed a few months after the peak of any El Niño so this is why 2024 will probably be the warmest on record."

• There is some hope that the temperatures may come down after the El Niño event subsides, according to Von Schuckmann. She said: 

"We still have a window where we can act and we should use this to reduce the consequences."

• However, other experts spoke of being "extremely worried and completely stressed."

 El Niño versus La Niña 

• El Niño is a weather event in the Pacific Ocean characterized by warm sea surface temperatures, causing atmospheric pressure, wind, and rain patterns across the globe. It can lead to drought in Southeast Asia and Australia, heavy rainfall and flooding in South America, and even impact global fisheries. 
• La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, resulting in cooler-than-usual ocean temperatures. These usually occur after El Niño events, but not always. 

What do you think? Are you concerned about the El Niño event?

-Jamie Epstein

(Photo credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/climate.gov)