Energy Dept. And FBI Say COVID Leaked From a Lab, Scientists Disagree

Updated March 1, 2023

• Virologists in the U.S. agree, for the most part, that COVID came from an animal, not a lab leak. They say the data is "very convincing," with "overwhelming evidence" that the disease jumped from an animal to a human, leading to the pandemic. 
• Specifically, scientists concluded that COVID most likely traveled from a caged animal to people at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, where a large outbreak began in December 2019. They found traces of COVID on surfaces that the animals were near or on, including cages, carts, and meat processing machines. 
• Angela Rasmussen, a virologist and contributor to these studies, emphasized the low to moderate confidence the DOE and FBI have that COVID came from a lab. She said: 

"Many other [news] outlets are presenting this as new conclusive proof that the lab origin hypothesis is equally as plausible as the zoonotic origin hypothesis, and that is a misrepresentation of the evidence for either."

What’s the story?

• Intelligence officials in the Department of Energy (DOE) announced that an accidental laboratory leak in China was most likely the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. spy agencies are still determining if this is the true origin of the virus. 
• Some officials say the validity of the information is relatively weak and that the DOE made the ruling with “low confidence.” Other agencies received the same information and did not come to the same conclusion.
• While National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan did not confirm the information, he said President Biden is using “every tool” the government has to determine the outbreak's origin.

Implications of the intelligence

• Officials say that discovering the truth behind the start of COVID-19 could significantly improve the government's ability to respond to future health crises and allow public health experts to study how to prevent another outbreak. 
• The new information has added fuel to the partisan uproar revolving around the pandemic in the U.S. Many Republicans believe the virus could have come from a research lab in Wuhan, while Democrats are not convinced.
• Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), who sits on the House Intelligence Committee, said: 

“Evidence has been piling up for over a year in favor of the lab leak hypothesis. I am glad some of our agencies are starting to listen to common sense and change their assessment.”

• Whether or not the virus did emerge from the lab, the intelligence agencies have made it clear that they do not believe the disease was created and released deliberately as a biological weapon. 

The arguments 

• In addition to the DOE, the FBI concluded with "moderate confidence" that the virus leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China. 
• Before this, in October 2021, the National Intelligence Council concluded that the virus emerged from a natural transmission and reported discrediting the lab leak hypothesis. 
• Sullivan spoke on this disagreement, saying that the division remains today. He continued:

“There is a variety of views in the intelligence community. Some elements of the intelligence community have reached conclusions on one side, some on the other. A number of them have said they just don’t have enough information to be sure.” 

• Chinese officials have repeatedly denied the information, saying the leaked lab hypothesis is a politically motivated lie with no scientific backing. 
• In March 2021, the World Health Organization reported that it was "extremely unlikely" that the virus emerged from the lab. However, American officials have dismissed the work because China appointed half of the scientists credited.  

What’s next?

• Sullivan said if more information comes to light, the administration will report it to Congress and the public. 
• Intelligence community leaders will brief Congress on March 8 and 9 as part of an annual hearing on global threats. 
• In January, House Republicans created a congressional subcommittee to examine the lab leak theory, which is expected to convene in March. 

What do you think? Was the COVID-19 virus leaked from a lab, or did it come from natural transmission? 

-Jamie Epstein

(Photo credit: Wikipedia/Wuhan Institute of Virology)