Causes.com
| 10.25.22

COVID-19 Update: The Winter Ahead

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What’s the story?

  • Experts fear a new COVID-19 spike as winter approaches, especially as pandemic safety measures drift away. In April, leading infectious disease expert, Anthony Fauci, began warning the nation of a COVID surge in the fall. After this, the Biden administration predicted that 100 million Americans could get COVID this winter. 
  • While cases have been slowly decreasing this fall, experts fear the decline may not last long as colder weather sends people back indoors for group gatherings. An epidemiologist with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations at the University of Washington, Ali Mokdad, said: 

“We are expecting a rise…in reported cases. There’ll be a rise in hospitalization and mortality but not as high proportionally to the rise in cases simply because many of us - the majority of Americans right now - have been either infected or vaccinated or both, so we have some immunity.”

  • In order to limit the social and economic impacts of COVID, officials are continuing to roll back restrictions and recommendations despite these concerns. While much of the country has returned to a normal state of life, infections and deaths still remain present. In the country’s third fall with COVID, with mitigation measures out the window and record-low mask-wearing, experts wonder how significant fall and winter surges will be. 
  • Mokdad believes the Biden administration’s prediction of 100 million infections could be accurate, even if another variant doesn’t replace BA.5, the dominant subvariant. David Dowdy, an epidemiologist at John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, agrees that this number could already be present, considering that COVID cases are drastically undercounted. 

The numbers

  • New COVID cases at the beginning of September were around 525,000 per week. Now, in late October, there are approximately 260,000 newly reported cases, the lowest number since April 2022. 
  • Since the rise of at-home testing, experts say hundreds of thousands of cases of COVID may be going unreported to health departments, significantly impacting the accuracy of the CDC’s data charts. Some believe cases could be five to 10 times higher than the official numbers. 
  • Case underreporting can impact how officials decide where to direct resources and how to make policy. Low-income populations are especially left out of the picture since at-home rapid tests aren’t free, meaning only those who can afford testing are getting it. 

Vaccines inequality 

  • Low-income countries are still bearing the brunt of COVID. The most recent data shows that poorer countries faced death rates twice as high as high-income countries. 
  • Even with the vaccine out, this is still the case. Wealthy countries are hoarding vaccine doses, buying more than they need, and letting plenty go to waste, leading to immense vaccine inequality. Since these extra vaccines expire, high-income nations are destroying doses that cannot be used or selling them to low-income countries much too close to the expiration date, making it impossible for governments to administer the vaccine on time. 
  • Unicef reported that rich countries entered into deals with vaccine manufacturers to buy 350% of the doses they need early on. Today, only about 23% of the people in low-income countries have been fully vaccinated. 

 

How can you prepare yourself for the winter ahead? The most important thing you can do is sign up for the most recent vaccine booster. Then, to help U.S. health departments and officials, be sure to report to your local health department if you test positive for COVID.

 

-Jamie Epstein 

(Photo credit: iStock/RichLegg)