Civic Register
| 1.15.22
U.S. Intel Warns Russia is Prepping ‘False Flag’ Operation as Pretext for Invading Ukraine
Are you concerned about Russia using a false pretext to invade Ukraine?
What’s the story?
- Russia is reportedly preparing a “false flag” operation to create a pretext and justify an invasion of Ukraine that could begin in the coming weeks, according to a U.S. intelligence official who spoke to multiple media outlets on Friday. This comes as recent negotiations by the U.S. and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies aimed at getting Russia to de-escalate its military buildup on Ukraine’s border have failed to achieve their goal to date.
- The “false flag” operation would likely involve sabotage or an apparent attack on ethnic Russians and a related propaganda campaign that would occur a few weeks prior to a military invasion. Such tactics are similar to those Russia used against Ukraine in 2014 when it seized Crimea and made an incursion into the Donbas in Eastern Ukraine.
- Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby explained the intelligence regarding Russia’s plans to create a pretext for invading Ukraine at a press briefing Friday:
“(W)e have information that they pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct what we call a false flag operation, an operation designed to look like an attack on them or Russian-speaking people in Ukraine, again, as an excuse to go in. And we already have, in addition, indications that Russian influence actors are already starting. They’re already starting to fabricate Ukrainian provocations in both state and social media to, again, try to justify in advance some sort of pretext for incursion.”
- Over the last several months, Russia has undertaken a significant military buildup on Ukraine’s border with over 100,000 troops in close proximity to the border and more personnel in staging areas where they could quickly be moved to the front. Some of the Russian units involved have been moved across the country from bases in Siberia and Russia’s Far East.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that he will only withdraw his military from Ukraine’s border if the U.S. and its NATO allies commit to never admitting Ukraine as a member of the alliance. He also has sought to reduce NATO troop levels in Central and Eastern Europe and to prevent further enlargement of NATO by adding countries like Finland, Sweden, and the Republic of Georgia.
- Ukraine is considered a NATO partner and its military has been receiving equipment and training from NATO members for years, although it’s not an official member of the alliance. Past efforts to admit Ukraine as a NATO member have been delayed by governmental instability, and while the current government of President Volodymyr Zelensky has sought to resolve issues standing in the way, it’s unclear how quickly NATO could admit Ukraine.
- The U.S. and NATO have informed Russia that future decisions about Ukraine joining NATO are between that country and the alliance and that Ukraine’s potential future membership won’t be a matter negotiated with Russia. Further, NATO has refused to reduce troop levels or rule out the enlargement such as through the admission of Finland and Sweden as NATO members.
- While Finland and Sweden aren’t actively pursuing membership at this point, they are close partners with NATO, and leaders in both countries have said that Russia shouldn’t have a veto over other countries’ potential NATO membership. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday that Finland and Sweden could be admitted “quite quickly” if the political will is there.
RELATED READING
- Biden Tells Ukrainian President the U.S. ‘Will Respond Decisively’ if Russia Invades Further (1/3/22)
- U.S. & NATO Urge Russia to Pull Back From its Military Buildup on Ukraine’s Border (12/3/21)
— Eric Revell
(Photo Credit: Dmitry Terekhov via Flickr / Creative Commons)
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Russia will take advantage of the political turmoil in the country to further its own agenda. The US and NATO will not respond accordingly to avoid a war and because Americans have become isolationist. Remember that WWII began in part because of American isolationism.
Biden has shown himself to be an absolute weak leader and Putin is taking advantage of this. While President Trump was in office, neither Russia nor China considered any aggression, but now the world recognizes the United States has weak and uncommitted leadership. And the left relentlessly falsely accused Trump of Russian collusion. It’s obvious who’s aligned with Russia’s interests.
Putin is hoping to hit two goals: make Biden look bad so his puppet Trump can come back and do Putin's biddings and eventually force Ukraine to be part of Russia's regime by whatever means.
Russia is looking for an excuse to annex more territory just as it took the Crimean Península while President Obama was in office. They do not fear or respect Mr. Biden or the decision makers in our government. They would not expect any serious penalties for violating another nation.
The United States & all Nato Members have to stand up to Putin & put an end to his constant threats to invade other Countries that formally belonged to the Soviet Union. These countries have every right to remain Democracies & Nato needs to step in & protect any & all Countries Putin threatens to invade. Putin only knows Power & he will do everything he can to get it, it's up to Nato & the USA to Stop him once & for all.
Putin wants to rebuild the USSR. We don't have a President who will stand up to Putin.
I agree with Larubia. Putin is trying to set it up to make Biden look weak so that he can get his favorite president back, the tRump. The tRump who did many things that personally helped Putin in his time in office and Putin misses that. jimK brought up about the spy planes that the tRump dismantled so that we can no longer see what is going on over there. That was playing into another one of Putin's dream moves and he wants more of that. Those that actually read the Mueller report and the bipartisan Senate report know that there was definitely collusion and obstruction. If Putin does invade Ukraine Biden needs to make it so uncomfortable that Putin backs off or he gets hit in every pocketbook and ill gotten gains that he has at his disposal.
I have a dear friend in Ukraine who has a newborn child. I'm worried about their safety and if a protracted war is going to leave them homeless or without work. The world is going to see America as not the strongest country because we have a weak, President who can't get his thoughts straight let alone talk tough enough to make Putin back off the Ukraine/Russia border. The whole planet sees it!
America's RepublicaNazis use false pretenses to achieve evil goals all the time. Why wouldn't the Russians?
Putin will use every tactic at his disposal to keep the US in turmoil until he can get his protege Donald reelected. Look at the previous relationship between them as Donald thought he was going to be the Putin of the USA and be elected Forever. The Republican Party has been infiltrated by Putin types who need their Donald in office to increase their power.
Putin is looking for any excuse to invade Ukraine as part of his goal to re-establish the former Soviet Union. He will use any tactic, including 'red flag' operations, to accomplish this goal. This is very similar to Hitler's beginning aggressions at the start of WWII in Europe and we CANNOT allow that to happen.
Gee, propaganda, misinformation, and "false flag" operations from Russia. Who could have seen THAT coming? Oh, right: everyone except the Russian stooges in the former "Republican" party. But I'm being unfair: "Republicans" undoubtedly know about and support such activities. After all, they use them on a regular basis in their campaign against the government of the USA.
Yes Russia is trying to start a war. They must be stopped.
It is not Russia's business what countries are involved in joining Nato. Personally I believe Ukraine should be allowed to join as it would help to prop up another country pursuing democratic principles of which should be supported. One of Putins/Russia's goals was to get the United States out of the Nato alliance of which djt & co. were more than happy to oblige him with. Formenting continually it's beginning with gru talking points spewed at the populus on it's disadvantages and overall strategic negative outcomes for our country of which nothing could be further from the actual truth. This country in fact would not be in a good position at all if leaving Nato would have taken place as djt and putin had planned. Are there problems to be worked out often in Nato yes of course that is what Nato does. It's called diplomacy but a complete withdrawal of this country never, no matter what those two were coniving. Is Russia still the bully in the playground scheming and screaming because they were kicked out for more than malfeasant malicious behaviors who continue to try to cause chaos like a spoiled rotten child that didn't get their own way. Adulting requires big boy/girl pants not diapers or continually threatening your supposed neighbors to get your own way. One cannot even have a seat at the table with those behaviors and never should be allowed to.
Ukraine is not essential to our interests. Russia is not our major geopolitical rival. There's nothing here. Move along.
This is similar to hitler’s excuse to invade Poland. Other nations didn’t respond and finally we had World War 2. If other nations had responded, that war might have been avoided. Interestingly, we responded to Iraq invasion of Kuwait in 1990. The difference? Kuwait has oil that we wanted. I consider it shameful that nothing was done when Russian invaded and annexed Crimea. (For many in congress who may not know, Crimea is/was part of Ukraine. History doesn’t seem to be a strong point for many of our current congress.)
I'm concerned about Russia doing ANYTHING. If you're not, you're not watching and listening. Putin is kicking the world when it's vulnerable and he knows it. It might even be argued that he's having fun doing it.
I am more concerned about the military industrial complex using this as an excuse for more money. This is all optics and gamesmanship. When are we going to stop living in a state of war mongering!!
Are you concerned about Russia using a false pretext to invade Ukraine? Of course I am concerned. I cannot imagine how scary it must be for the people of Ukraine. Russia always has been and probably always will be a bully. This is another test for Democrats of whether or not we are going to allow aggression to continue or whether we are going to decide to slap the holy crap out of them. Real life teaches us that bullies might "grow out" of their tendencies but you probably won't be around when they do. Hopefully we react with more force than we have reacted toward the traitors on January 6th. There are rules that guide a civilized society and tolerance toward bullies should never be a rule.
Yes I am very concerned about what Russia is doing to the Ukraine. Mainly because Joe Biden shut down our oil pipeline the first day he was president. We were not only using our own oil, we were selling it to other countries. Making money for our country. Joe Biden changed that the first day he was president. He shut our oil pipeline down but 11,000 people plus out of work and then he buys oil from Russia. If Trump did that Trump would’ve been charged with collusion with Russia. But that didn’t happen with Joe Biden. Now what do we use as a leverage against what Russia is trying to do in the Ukraine. I heard the idiot that answers the questions for the news media for Joe Biden say we’re gonna put sanctions against them. Really are they kidding. What if Russia decides to stop selling us oil.? Joe Biden is such a week sick President he is put our country in more danger than any other president has in the history of America. I can name so many more things that he has done to harm our country in one year of his presidency. God help us for the next three years because we’re going to need it. Joe Biden is just about destroyed our school system, he’s trying to change the elections with voting rights of people who are not American citizens have no right to vote. He wants to make it so all of the people that he let come in through our southern border be able to vote Democrat. I am not a republican I am not a democrat IAM an independent, because it’s none of their business how I’m going to vote. I have never been so disappointed in a president as I am with Joe Biden. He barely can speak and he does not answer questions because he can’t Nancy Pelosi will not allow him to answer questions because she knows he’s an idiot. Everybody is thinking the same way. We are afraid for our Country. And the fear is growing every day.