{"articles":[{"reaction_config":[{"text":"Yes","color":"#624960","stance":"yes"},{"text":"Maybe","color":"#edb723","stance":"maybe"},{"text":"No","color":"#4ac6ec","stance":"no"}],"id":9430,"title":"Poll: Americans Want to Leave Roe v. Wade Alone - Would You Like to See SCOTUS Make Abortion Illegal?","html_content":"

by Axios | 9.12.18

Countable asks: Would you support the Supreme Court making abortion illegal? Hit Take Action and tell your reps. (Via AXIOS)

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Data: Survey Monkey online poll conducted Sept. 5-7, 2018 among 2,033 adults in the United States. The modeled error estimates: full sample ±3.0, African-American Women ± 10.5, Millennials Age 18 - 34 ± 6, White Suburban Women ± 7.5, Never Hillary/Independent voters ± 11.5, Rural ± 6.5; Poll methodology; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

The vast majority of Americans want to leave Roe v. Wade alone, a reality that Republicans will face if Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed to the Supreme Court and has a chance to overturn it, according to a new Axios-SurveyMonkey survey.

Why it matters: The landmark decision legalizing abortion has overwhelming support across the board, including every category of key voters Axios is tracking in the midterm elections. That includes eight out of 10 white suburban women and #NeverHillary independents — two subgroups Republicans will need if they want to keep control of Congress after November.

\nEven rural voters — who normally give President Trump some of his strongest support — are strongly against overturning Roe.
\nThe margin is closer among Republicans: 45% want to overturn Roe, while 50% want to leave it in place. But 78% of independents, and 90% of Democrats, want to leave the decision the way it is.

Americans are more divided over Kavanaugh. More people oppose his confirmation (48%) than support it, and the questions over whether he would vote to overturn Roe are fueling doubts about him. But public opinion isn't as lopsided over him as it is over abortion.

The other side: Don't ignore the pro-choice Kavanaugh supporters. Nearly one third of those who want to leave Roe alone also support Kavanaugh's nomination.

\nThey make up 38% of #NeverHillary independents, the most crucial swing voter in the 2018 midterms. And he's gained net support (50%) from these voters, too, since we started polling them in August.
\nDemocrats' rally to block Kavanaugh could alienate some of these voters come November — especially if, for whatever reason, he's not confirmed.

Between the lines: Our polling suggests that Kavanaugh will never win over black women (69% disapprove) or millennials (57% disapprove). He's also lost support among white suburban women.

\nThat doesn't mean Kavanaugh will be the most important issue to midterm election voters: only 7% said that. But another 43% said the Supreme Court nomination will be one of several important factors in their vote.

The bottom line: The Supreme Court fight guarantees that abortion will be an issue in the midterm elections — and an even bigger one in 2020 if Kavanaugh is confirmed and the court makes a move against Roe v. Wade.

Go deeper: How SCOTUS could start rolling back abortion rights

Methodology: This analysis is based on SurveyMonkey online surveys conducted Sept. 5-7, 2018 among 2,033 adults in the United States. The modeled error estimate for the full sample is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points. More information about our methodology here. Crosstabs available here.

-Alexi McCammond

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