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'I Don’t See a Recession': Trump and His Top Advisers Dismiss Growing Economic Concerns
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  • doingmypart
    Voted Yes
    08/20/2019
    ···

    I’m with burrkitty on this one. Republican Presidents= Recessions since 1923. Seriously. Look at the history. Every Republican president since Teddy Roosevelt in the early 1900's endured a recession in their first term. Four Republican presidents suffered through two recessions while in office and Republican President Dwight Eisenhower presided over three. While four in five Democratic presidents saw no recessions during their terms since 1945. While history isn't gospel, the track record makes the odds that a recession might appear during 45's term all the more likely. Interestingly, recessions aren't the only indicator of economic slowdown that appear during times of Republican presidents. Real GDP growth, a measure of economic activity in the U.S., averaged 3.33% during the 64 years and 16 presidential terms going back to President Truman in the mid-1940s, according to a 2013 research paper by professors of economics Alan Blinder and Mark Watson at Princeton University. With a Republican in the White House, though, the economy's growth slowed to 2.54%, the economists found. With a Democrat in office, growth jumped to 4.35% on average. A variety of other economic indicators, such as per capital GDP, stock market returns, real wages and the change in the unemployment rate, are also more robust with a Democratic president, the economists found. Unemployment fell by 0.8 percentage points with a Democratic president on average, while it rose 1.1% with a Republican. "The U.S. economy has performed better when the President of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican, almost regardless of how one measures performance," according to the report titled "Presidents and the Economy: A Forensic Investigation." Trump faces a ticking clock in terms of the ongoing economic recovery's life. The economic expansion period the U.S. is in now is 89 months old making it the fourth longest expansion of the 21 since 1902 and twice the length of the median expansion. So yeah. I expect a recession.

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