Iran President Ebrahim Raisi Dies, Highlighting Controversial Legacy

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 The risk level for the U.S. has increased with the death of the Iranian President and Foreign Minister in a helicopter crash because the U.S. is viewed as responsible since needed helicopter parts are not available to service 20+ year old helicopters due to sanctions, and Iran’s close relationship with Russia which also blames the U.S. for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Iranian produced drones have been used to attack U.S. Allies, with Russia using them against Ukraine and both Iran and Iranian proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) have attack Israel as Israeli business interests.

In addition Iran now enriches uranium at nearly weapons grade quality since Trump withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2018. Putin has been threatening use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, so it’s possible that Iran may do the same.

Maybe with a new President and Foreign Minister there is a chance the Nuclear Deal could be renegotiated where it previously failed however Iran previously said it was useless if a US President can break a deal negotiated by a previous President like Trump did.

“…aircraft in Iran face a shortage of parts because of Western sanctions, and often fly without safety checks. Against that backdrop, former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif sought to blame the United States for the crash.”

“One of the main culprits of yesterday’s tragedy is the United States, which ... embargoed the sale of aircraft and aviation parts to Iran and does not allow the people of Iran to enjoy good aviation facilities,” Zarif said. “These will be recorded in the list of U.S. crimes against the Iranian people.”

“Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in the Shiite theocracy, quickly named a little-known vice president as caretaker and insisted the government was in control”

Ali Bagheri Kani, a nuclear negotiator for Iran, will serve as the country’s acting foreign minister, state TV said."

 " The U.S. has yet to comment publicly on Raisi’s death.

 " Raisi’s death raised the specter of what will happen after the 85-year-old supreme leader either resigns or dies. Final say in all matters of state rest with his office and only two men have held the position since the 1979 Islamic Revolution."

 " Under Raisi, Iran now enriches uranium at nearly weapons-grade levels and hampers international inspections. Iran has armed Russia in its war on Ukraine, as well as launched a massive drone-and-missile attack on Israel amid its war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. It also has continued arming proxy groups in the Mideast, like Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Lebanon’s Hezbollah."

 "Moscow is ready to send rescuers to help the Iranian colleagues in their search operation for President Ebrahim Raisi’s helicopter that crash landed in a mountainous area in northwestern Iran, Russia’s Charge d’Affaires in Tehran said."

 "We are ready to send rescuers to Iran immediately. We have declared our readiness and are waiting for the decision of the Iranian side," the unnamed Russian diplomat told the Tasnim news agency."

"Mohammad Mokhber and Ali Bagheri Kani are now interim president and foreign minister, respectively, and may be replaced once a new president is elected….But both are highly likely to remain at the top levels of government, if not in their new positions, after having been mainstays of the Raisi administration, which was often praised by – and is closely aligned with – Khamenei."

"Iran will now have to hold elections and choose a new president within 50 days, according to the country’s constitution, about a year sooner than planned."

"State media has reported that the election will take place on June 28, with candidates to be registered between May 30 and June 3."

"Raisi and Amirabdollahian had spent almost three years establishing themselves as the faces of Iran on the global stage, but their passing will likely not signal a major shift for Iran’s foreign policy."

"The Iranian political establishment has a roughly unified view of Iran’s international policies."

"Interim President Mohammad Mokhber has been mostly focused on local affairs, from navigating politics to managing efforts to stabilise the perennially sanctioned Iranian economy."

"But he has also accompanied the president, or led delegations himself, on foreign trips from China and Russia to a tour of Africa."

"Interim Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani has been Iran’s chief negotiator in nuclear talks with global powers. It is unclear whether he has the same strong ties with the regional, Iran-aligned “axis of resistance” that Amirabdollahian had."

“The Iran nuclear agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is a landmark accord reached between Iran and several world powers, including the United States, in July 2015. Under its terms, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear program and open its facilities to more extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars’ worth of sanctions relief.”

“.. the deal has been in jeopardy since President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from it in 2018. In retaliation for the U.S. departure and for deadly attacks on prominent Iranians in 2020, including one by the United States, Iran has resumed its nuclear activities.”

“President Joe Biden said that the United States would return to the JCPOA if Iran came back into compliance, but after more than two years of stop-and-go talks, the countries are nowhere near a compromise, and as of late 2023, provisions of the agreement have started to expire.”

“Iran said Saturday that attempting to revive its landmark nuclear deal with world powers that was effectively scrapped by former U.S. President Donald Trump was increasingly "useless."

https://www.voanews.com/a/iran-says-reviving-nuclear-deal-useless-/7391190.html

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2024/5/20/what-comes-next-for-iran-after-the-death-of-president-raisi

 https://apnews.com/article/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-426c6f4ae2dd1f0801c73875bb696f48

 https://tass.com/politics/1790439/amp

Omg, a new non recycled post! Praise be!

I won't shed any tears for Raisi, he was an extremist who opposed human rights.

However, this is another opportunity for the people of Iran to choose new leadership, at least within the allowances of the clerics in power. Hopefully they take this opportunity to chart a new course after the massive protests of the past few years.

I'm hopeful for them.