How Divided Are Americans Going into the 2024 Election?

The American divide

• The American public is deeply divided on the political front, causing heightened tension around new policies, Supreme Court cases, elections, and more. Despite the deep political polarization, a new poll found that U.S. adults still share core values about what it means to be an American, constitutional rights, and more. 
• The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research's poll revealed that Americans are far more likely to agree on their central beliefs than many may think. For instance, around 90% of respondents said everyone's right to equal protection under the law, the right to vote, freedom of speech, and the right to privacy are extremely or very important to the U.S.'s identity.
• The results found only a slight variance between Republican and Democrat responses, not including a question about the right to bear arms. 
• Observers found these findings to be striking, as they come at a time of extreme partisanship and a heightened potential for violence during election seasons, as found in an additional poll.

Dissatisfaction with democracy 

• The AP assessment discovered that only 30% of Americans believe the nation's democracy is functioning well. Half of respondents said the country's democracy is poorly functioning, while 14% said the U.S. is not a democracy at all. Experts say this response, highlighting many Americans' dissatisfaction with the government, is not a surprise.
• John Hopkins political scientist Professor Lilliana Mason said that these results emphasize how most Americans share moderate political beliefs, but have been influenced to despise the other party for being culturally, racially, and regionally different. 

Generational divide 

• The poll found divisions among different age groups. Most notably, Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 are less likely than those 60 and older to say the U.S. is a well-functioning democracy. Younger participants were also less likely to say some characteristics are essential to America, including having a democratically elected government. 
• Another political scientist, Professor Howard Lavine of the University of Minnesota, said the generational split is understandable and to be expected. Lavine noted that this may be a result of young voters having only experienced presidential elections involving Donald Trump, and being unable to recall a time when political views did not dictate personal relationships. 

Resorting to violence

• An additional poll done by PBS NewsHour, NPR, and Marist poll found that one in five U.S. adults believe that polarization in America is so bad that the country may have to resort to violence to solve domestic division. 
• Republicans were slightly more likely than Democrats or independents to say that violence may be the solution to the divide. In total, 28% of Republican respondents agreed with this claim. 
• Experts say this belief puts the nation in "an incredibly dangerous place" leading up to the 2024 presidential election. 

(Image Credit: PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist Poll)

• Former U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan, Barbara McQuade, underscored how this may be a result of Trump's recent reelection campaign strategies of "convincing people the country is going downhill, that things are awful and only he can fix them." McQuade added that authoritarians across history have used these tactics to conjure fear and manipulate people's emotions. She said that "to some extent, these strategies are working" and that "we need strong voices pushing back."

Will the divide among Americans impact your vote this year?

-Jamie Epstein