Hezbollah Leader Threatens To Escalate Battle

Updated November 3, 2023, 1:30 p.m. EST

• Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, made a widely anticipated televised statement on Friday that his militia is already engaged in battle along the Lebanon-Israel border and threatened to escalate the fight further. He did not, however, announce that Hezbollah would fully enter the war, which many debated if he would.
• The U.S. issued warnings to Hezbollah against involvement. Nasrallah said the warnings "will not scare us." In the statement, he declared that he was prepared for all options and said the fighting would not be limited to the scale seen thus far. 

Updated October 25, 2023, 3:00 p.m. EST

• Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, met top officials from Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad today. A Hezbollah statement said:

“An assessment was made of…what the parties of the resistance axis must do at this sensitive stage to achieve a real victory for the resistance in Gaza and Palestine and to stop the treacherous and brutal aggression against our people.”

• Netanyahu warned that if Hezbollah tried to enter the war, it would be crippled with a force it “cannot even imagine.” 
• On Friday, Israel ordered the evacuation of Kiryat Shmona, a city of 20,000 people one mile from Lebanon's border.
• Several countries, including Germany, Norway, and the U.K. are urging their citizens in Lebanon to leave immediately, given the uncertain security situation.

What's the story?

• U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies are trying to determine whether the planned ground offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip could incite Hezbollah to launch a military campaign against Israel from Lebanon in light of a series of clashes along the border.
• Hezbollah has called for a "day of rage" over the airstrike that hit a hospital in Gaza and killed around 500 people. They blamed Israel for the strike, calling it a brutal crime and a massacre.
• On Monday, Israel evacuated the residents of 28 villages and kibbutzim in the region and reinforced its northern border with Lebanon. Lebanese civilians in border towns have also evacuated.
• The U.S. sent a second aircraft carrier group to the region to bolster Israeli defenses and deter any other state or non-state actors from entering the conflict. 
• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vetoed proposals for a pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah. However, he warned Hezbollah:

"I have a message for Iran and Hezbollah: Don't test us in the north. Don't repeat the same mistake, because today, the price you'll pay will be much heavier."

What is Hezbollah?

• Hezbollah is an Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite political party and militant group founded during the 15-year Lebanese Civil War, which broke out in 1975. It has since been designated a terrorist organization by the U.S.
• The group opposes Israeli and Western influence in the Middle East and often functions as a proxy for its benefactor, Iran. Its extensive security apparatus and influence have led to it being deemed a "state within a state." 
• Hezbollah fought a 33-day war with Israel in 2006. Analysts believe Hezbollah poses a graver threat to Israel due to its vast arsenal of precision-guided missiles and large reserve of experienced fighters.
• For the past eight years, the Israeli military has tried to avoid direct confrontation with the group, which has been successful in managing the simmering tensions. Israel has not fought a two-front war since Syria and Egypt both attacked on Yom Kippur 50 years ago.

What is happening now?

• Israeli shelling left three Hezbollah fighters dead last week. In retaliation, Hezbollah fired at an Israeli tank and other military positions, killing one soldier. On Sunday, an Israeli civilian and a soldier were killed by anti-tank missiles fired from Lebanon.
• Two Lebanese army officials claimed that Israel had used munitions loaded with white phosphorus, violating international law when used to target civilian areas.
• Shelling on the border with Lebanon killed Reuters videographer Issam Abdallah and injured six other journalists. Al Jazeera said an Israeli shell was responsible.  

Concerns of a second front

• National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said:

"There is a risk of an escalation of this conflict, the opening of a second front in the north and, of course, of Iran's involvement."

• Mick Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official and C.I.A. officer, said:

"If Hamas looks like it will be destroyed, Hezbollah will have incredible pressure to get directly involved and open a northern front. The more civilians killed, the more outrage will come from people in the region. This will put more pressure on Hezbollah to join the fight or lose credibility."

• Iran's foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said:

"Time is running out very fast. If the war crimes against the Palestinians are not immediately stopped, other multiple fronts will open and this is inevitable."

• Despite the tension, many analysts believe that Israel and Hezbollah will try to avoid a full escalation because each side has a lot to lose economically and politically in the event of an all-out war. Analysts worry, however, that increased assault on Gaza will compel Hezbollah to act.

Is the U.S. doing enough to protect civilians?

-Emma Kansiz

(Photo credit: AP Photo/Hussein Malla)