Wagner Group Leader Presumed Dead in Plane Crash

Updated August 23, 2023, 4:45 p.m. EST

• Leader of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was on board the crashed Embraer plane on Wednesday and is presumed dead. The aircraft was flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg and is said to have crashed near the village of Kuzhenkino. 
• The Wagner-associated Telegram channel Grey Zone reported that the plane was shot down by air defenses, saying Prigozhin died "as a result of actions of traitors of Russia."
• Authorities launched an investigation into the crash, and emergency services are searching the scene.
• President Joe Biden told reporters that he was "not surprised" by the news of Prigozhin's possible death. He added:

"There's not much that happens in Russia that Putin is not behind..."

• White House National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement:

"If confirmed, no one should be surprised. The disastrous war in Ukraine led to a private army marching on Moscow, and now -- it would seem -- to this."

What's the story?

• On Saturday, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the president of the notorious mercenary group Wagner, staged what he called a "march for justice," but what observers are calling an insurrection.
• Prigozhin led an armed convoy towards Moscow but called the move off suddenly, and the men retreated to their base.
• Prigozhin said:

"In 24 hours we got to within 200km (124 miles) of Moscow. In this time we did not spill a single drop of our fighters' blood."

• While under investigation, Prigozhin flew to Belarus from Russia on Tuesday.

What's the backstory?

• Prigozhin has been publically critical of the Russian army. Through his Wagner mercenary group, he has recruited thousands of men to fight in Ukraine, most of whom are ex-convicts.
• His vocal criticisms have caused tensions with the military leadership. He has targeted Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and armed forces chief Valery Gerasimov over their logistical failures.
• The dispute escalated as the military sought to bring Prigozhin's forces under their command structure by a specified deadline, which would dissolve the Wagner army's autonomy. Russian President Putin backed the military's deadline.

What happened?

• Crossing into Russia from occupied eastern Ukraine, Wagner fighters made their way to Moscow via Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh.
• Prigozhin said:

"There are 25,000 of us and we are going to find out why there is such chaos in the country. Everyone who wants, join us."

• As his forces moved across the border into Rostov-on-Don, Prigozhin seized control of the military headquarters responsible for overseeing the war in Ukraine.
• Videos surfaced, which showed his men and tanks in the city center seemingly facing no resistance. The next day, he declared their presence inside the military headquarters and claimed the city had been captured without a single shot being fired.
• Prigozhin said:

"[People] were all happy [to see us]. Many of them still write us words of support and some are disappointed that we stopped, because in the march of justice, in addition to our struggle for existence, they saw support for the fight against bureaucracy and other ills that exist in our country today."

Lukashenko's role

• The Wagner convoy stopped within 124 miles of Moscow after an apparent deal was struck with the help of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The Kremlin announced that Prigozhin would head to Belarus without facing criminal charges.
• President Lukashenko allegedly offered to find a solution to further the work of the Wagner Group in a legal manner. He has suggested that the highly trained Wagner units could benefit the Belarusian army.
• He said that he had to convince Putin not to murder Prigozhin.

Putin's reaction

• Russia's FSB security service initiated a criminal case, prompting an alert throughout the Moscow region and Voronezh along the M4 motorway.
• Putin called the march an act of treason, a betrayal, and vowed consequences. He stated that the "armed rebellion would have been suppressed anyway."
• Putin addressed the mercenary fighters, arguing that they had:

"[An] opportunity to continue serving Russia by entering into a contract with the Ministry of Defense or other law enforcement agencies or to return to your family and friends. Whoever wants to can go to Belarus."

• Observers argue that the event highlights the fragility of Putin's hold on power because the incident proved that there are alternatives to his leadership. It also appeared as though Putin relied on Belarus to come to his aid.
• The theory that Putin and Prigozhin conspired to "test the loyalty of the Russian elites" is circulating on social media.
• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the insurrection shows "cracks in the facade" of Putin's power.
• Moscow is preparing to absorb the Wagner fighters into the regular military. Fighters have been given the choice to sign an army contract or leave Russia for Belarus.  

Are you worried about the events in Russia?

—Emma Kansiz