What Do Polls Say About Americans' Views on Abortion Policies?

What’s the story?

• The Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson last week overturned past precedents related to abortion rights under Roe v. Wade (1973) and Planned Parenthood v. Casey (1992), which partially reversed and modified its predecessor. The ruling allowed Mississippi’s 15-week abortion ban to take effect and ― barring the unlikely near-term prospect of significant action at the federal level by Congress ― effectively returns the issue of abortion policy to the states as was the case prior to Roe.
• With abortion policy once again falling primarily under the purview of state governments, citizens on either side of the debate will focus their efforts on cultivating public opinion at the state level to implement their preferred policies through state legislatures, governors, and state supreme courts.
• The 50 states will have an opportunity to function as laboratories of democracy. Some states will adopt more restrictive abortion policies and others will be more permissive. Some will move quickly to change policies, while others may take an incremental approach to the issue. Citizens may change some states’ policies on the ballot using the initiative process, lawmakers may ask voters to weigh in using legislative referendums, and state courts could issue their own constitutional rulings.
• Public opinion regarding abortion policies in the U.S. is deeply nuanced, although that reality is often obscured by partisan talking points and clickbait headlines from activists on either side of the debate. In some cases, polls show an incoherent understanding of Supreme Court rulings like Roe and how they impact abortion policy.
• For example, the same polls have shown majority support for abortion rights based on the Roe v. Wade decision along with majority support for abortion restrictions that would’ve been prohibited by Roe and Casey, which barred abortion restrictions in the first trimester and prior to fetal viability, respectively. (Read a breakdown of Roe, Casey, and other past Supreme Court abortion precedents here.)
• While a great deal of the public opinion polling focuses on broad questions ― such as whether a person considers themselves pro-choice or pro-life, or believes abortion should be legal or illegal in all or most cases ― questions that focus on specific, non-abstract policies can be more useful in understanding the subtleties of the abortion debate. 
• Here’s a look at what polls say about Americans’ views on abortion policies, particularly the sort of time limits, health exceptions, and other restrictions on abortion that are likely to be the focus of the debate in the states:

Abortion Access by Trimester

• Many regulations on abortion are generally defined by the trimester of pregnancy or time limits measured in weeks that may align with the trimesters. The first trimester of pregnancy runs from conception through 12 weeks; the second trimester from 12 weeks to 24 weeks; and the third trimester from 24 to 40 weeks. For reference, fetal cardiac activity can be detected by ultrasound around weeks six through eight, and fetal viability typically begins around 22-24 weeks ― although the most premature infant to survive was born at 21 weeks.
• Gallup has polled the legality of abortion by trimester on several occasions dating back at least as early as 1996 and as recently as May 2022. The public’s views have been relatively stable throughout: majorities of Americans support legal abortion in the first trimester and oppose legal abortion starting in the second trimester, with third trimester abortions receiving the least support.
• First Trimester: Gallup’s polls show a majority of Americans support legal access to abortion in the first trimester. Legal abortions in the first trimester had 64% support in 1996, reached 66% in 2003 before they declined to 60% as of 2018, and rebounded to 67% in 2022.
• Second Trimester: Gallup’s polls show that a majority of Americans oppose legal access to abortion in the second trimester. Legal abortions in the second trimester had 26% support in 1996, which declined to 24% in 2000 and 2011, then rose to 28% in 2018, and increased to 36% in 2022.
• Third Trimester: Gallup’s polls show that a large majority of Americans oppose legal access to abortion in the third trimester. Legal abortions in the third trimester had only 13% support in 1996, which then dipped to a low of 8% in 2000, rose to 14% as of 2012, and reached a new high of 20% in 2022.
• According to Gallup, first trimester abortions were opposed by 27% of Americans, while 55% opposed second trimester abortions, and 71% opposed third trimester abortions as of May 2022.

Demographic Differences: 

• In 2018, the Gallup poll showed small differences between men and women in their support for legal abortion by trimester. In the first trimester, 60% of both genders were in favor. There were slight differences between the genders regarding second and third trimester abortions: 31% of men and 26% of women supported legal abortions in the second trimester; while 14% of men and 12% of women supported third trimester abortions.
• Gallup’s 2018 poll found that Americans who graduated college were the most likely to support legal abortion access in all trimesters, with 72% support in the first trimester, 40% in the second trimester, and 19% in the third trimester. Americans with some college most closely mirrored the public at large, with 63% support for abortions in the first trimester, 22% in the second trimester, and 10% in the third trimester. Americans with no college were generally less likely to support legal abortions, with 49% support in the first trimester, 24% in the second trimester, and 9% in the third trimester.
• Older Americans (age 55+) were generally less likely to support legal access to abortion at any stage of pregnancy in Gallup’s 2018 poll, with 54% support in the first trimester, 27% support in the second trimester, and 12% support in the third trimester. Younger Americans (aged 18-34) were the most supportive of legal abortion in all trimesters ― 66% in the first, 33% in the second, and 14% in the third. Americans aged 35 to 54 were in the middle, as their views were closer to younger Americans in the first trimester at 63%, and nearly matched older Americans in the second and third trimesters at 26% and 12%, respectively.

Partisan Differences: 

• Unsurprisingly, the greatest distinction in Americans’ views on abortion policies comes when comparing views based on partisan identification. 
• Gallup’s 2018 poll found Republicans were the least likely to be in favor of legal abortion in any trimester, with only 42% support in the first trimester, 12% in the second trimester, and 6% in the third trimester. 
• Democrats were the most likely to be in favor of legal abortion in any trimester, with 77% support in the first trimester, 46% support in the second trimester, and 18% in the third trimester. 
• Independents most closely mirrored the American public as a whole, with 60% support for legal abortions in the first trimester, 27% in the second trimester, and 13% in the third trimester.

Trimesters & Health Situation

• The 2018 Gallup poll also gauged Americans’ support for legal abortion in the first and third trimesters depending on several health situations.
• It found broad support in the first and third trimesters for legal abortions when the woman’s life is endangered, with 83% support in the first trimester and 75% support in the third.
• In cases where the pregnancy was the result of rape or incest, there was 77% support for legal abortions in the first trimester and 52% in the third trimester.
• When the child would be born with a life-threatening illness, there was 67% support for legal abortions in the first trimester, which declined below a majority to 48% in the third trimester.
• When the child would be born mentally disabled, there was 56% support for legal abortions in the first trimester which declined to 35% support in the third trimester.
• In cases when the child would be born with Down syndrome, there wasn’t majority support in either trimester as 49% supported legal abortion in the first trimester and 29% in the third trimester.
• Public support was at its lowest when the woman does not want the child for any reason, with support for legal abortions in the first trimester at 45% and only 20% in the third trimester.

Other Abortion Policies

• A Gallup poll from 2011 gauged public sentiment regarding seven types of abortions regulations and restrictions that have been the focus of policy debates at both the federal and state level at various times in recent decades:
• Patient Informed Consent: A law requiring doctors to inform patients about certain possible risks of abortion before performing the procedure had 87% in favor and 11% opposed. Across gender and partisan groups, this policy had at least 84% in favor.
• Parental Consent for Minors’ Abortions: A law requiring women under 18 to get parental consent for any abortion had 71% in favor and 27% opposed. Among partisan groups, this policy had the support of 83% of Republicans, 71% of Independents, and 61% of Democrats; while among gender groups, it was supported by 72% of women and 68% of men.
• 24-Hour Abortion Waiting Period: A law requiring women seeking abortions to wait 24 hours before having the procedure done had 69% in favor and 28% opposed. This policy had the broadest support among Republicans (85%), women (70%), men (68%), and Independents (67%); while it was at its lowest among Democrats (60%).
• Partial-Birth Abortion Ban: A law making it illegal to perform a specific abortion procedure known as a “partial-birth abortion” during the last six months of pregnancy except in cases necessary to save the life of the mother had 64% in favor and 31% opposed. This policy was favored by 72% of Republicans, 67% of men, 65% of Independents, 62% of women, and 59% of Democrats.
• Ultrasound Requirement: A law requiring women seeking an abortion to be shown an ultrasound image of her fetus at least 24 hours before the procedure had 50% in favor and 46% opposed. Among political groups, this policy was the only one of the seven polled in which Republicans (66%) were closer to Democrats (49%) than Independents (42%) in terms of support. For the gender groups, 52% of women and 48% of men were in favor.
• Healthcare Provider Opt-Outs: A law allowing pharmacists and health providers to opt out of providing medicine or surgical procedures that result in abortion had 46% in favor and 51% opposed. Support among political groups was 62% for Republicans, 46% for Independents, and 33% for Democrats; while 47% of men and 43% of women were in favor.
• Federal Funding Ban: A law prohibiting health clinics that provide abortion services from receiving any federal funds had 40% in favor and 57% opposed. The policy’s favorability among political groups was 58% for Republicans, 40% for Independents, and 33% for Democrats; while 43% of men and 37% of women were in favor.

RELATED READING

• Supreme Court Overturns Federal Abortion Rights Under Roe & Casey - What Do the Opinions Say? (6/24/22)
• What Did the Supreme Court Say About Abortion Rights in Cases Like Roe, Casey, & Others? (5/10/22)

— Eric Revell

(Photo Credit: iStock.com / DJMcCoy)