Leaked SCOTUS Draft Would Overturn Roe v. Wade - What Would That Mean?

What’s the story?

• Politico has reportedly obtained an initial draft majority opinion written by Justice Samuel Alito, which indicates a majority of the Supreme Court justices support overturning the landmark 1973 case Roe v. Wade, which affirmed the legality of a woman’s right to an abortion. 
• The draft opinion is part of the Court’s deliberations in the case of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, a challenge to Mississippi’s 15-week ban on abortion. The state had asked the Court to use the case to overturn Roe as well, but it was still unclear whether the justices planned to go so far.
• Politico reports that a five-vote majority is currently in favor of striking down Roe outright — justices Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett siding with Alito. News outlets have reported in the past that Chief Justice John Roberts signaled he did not want to completely overturn Roe, but would side with upholding the Mississippi ban.
• Alito argues that Roe was “egregiously wrong” from the start and that abortion rights should return to the states. Read the entire 98-page draft here.
• The release of this draft before a formal decision is virtually unprecedented in the history of the Supreme Court. The draft could still be subject to change and the decision of each justice isn’t final until the formal release of the court’s ruling, which is expected to come in late June or early July.

What could happen if Roe is overturned this summer?

A shift to the states

• Without Roe, the constitutional right to obtain an abortion would be gone.
• However, ending Roe wouldn’t end abortion – or the fight over abortion – in America. Rather, a repeal of the landmark decision would shift the battle from federal to state courts. States have already begun to pass stricter abortion laws in Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, and elsewhere ahead of the Dobbs decision. 
• States would need to pass regulations about when, where, and under what circumstances women could access abortions.
• As the Cincinnati Enquirer put it:

“Those on both sides of the debate say the result would be a patchwork of new laws, with some states enacting outright bans, others setting tougher restrictions, and still others maintaining the status quo.”

At least 22 states poised to effectively ban abortion

According to the Guttmacher Institute:

• 13 states have approved what are known as “trigger laws” that would ban abortion the moment SCOTUS overturns Roe.
• Nine states whose bans on abortion were ended by Roe but never removed would likely see those pre-Roe bans reinstated, and nine states currently have unconstitutional post-Roe bans that could be brought back into effect.
• Abortion would remain legal in some form in at least sixteen states and the District of Columbia, which have passed laws explicitly protecting the right for women to obtain an abortion.
• Forty-three states have passed limits on abortions after a specified point in pregnancy with some exceptions. 

Crossing state lines

• Overturning Roe would likely create a network where women living in states that ban abortions would have to travel hundreds of miles or more to find a clinic across state lines. Evidence has already shown an increase in women traveling to other states to obtain abortions as a result of Texas’ recent ban. 
• This could give rise to more groups like Fund Texas Choice, a nonprofit that arranges and funds travel for women seeking abortions in the restrictive Lone Star State.
• However, the L.A. Times explained that “women in conservative states who couldn’t afford to travel to places where abortion was legal would be most at risk, experts in abortion law say.”

Doctors and pregnant women could be subject to criminal prosecution

• Those unable to travel for abortions could turn to doctors willing to illegally perform the procedure in their state.
• Several states have laws stating that doctors who provide abortions illegally would risk hefty fines and prison sentences, as could the women who obtained them.

“Police used to go into the hospitals and emergency rooms trying to find evidence,” Leslie Reagan, author of the book “When Abortion Was a Crime”, told the Times. “They would stake out clinics and round up women as they left.… Women would be threatened, interrogated and brought into court as witnesses against their providers.”

What do you think of the leaked draft opinion? Should Roe v. Wade be overturned?

-Josh Herman, Casey Harris, Casey Dawson

(Photo: Wikimedia / APK)