Russia's War on Ukraine Impacts Food Exports, Raising Risk of Food Insecurity Around the World

What’s the story?

• Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine threatens to exacerbate food insecurity around the world as the flow of agricultural exports from the two countries is impacted by the conflict. As a result, international food prices ― which were already at an all-time high prior to the war ― have surged even higher. 
• This has prompted an urgent call by the UN’s World Food Program (WFP) to warn of a cascade of hunger in wartorn and impoverished regions around the world if action isn’t taken to stabilize food supplies and feed those who lack access to adequate nutrition. 

The Role of Ukraine & Russia in Agricultural Markets

• In 2021, Ukraine and Russia combined to produce about 30% world’s wheat exports and about 55% of sunflower oil exports, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Both also are among the top countries in terms of exporting corn, barley, and rapeseed oil. 
• While some of these products may have substitutes (including other vegetable oils), the scale of the market disruption will increase those prices as well because it’s difficult for farmers to quickly adjust their supply to meet demand.
• Ukraine alone exported over $27 billion in agricultural products in 2021 and is one of the world’s leading producers and exporters of grain and sunflower seeds. It was projected to be the world’s third-largest exporter of corn in 2021-22, representing 18% of the global market.
• Russia is a major supplier of fertilizer around the world. In 2021, Russia was the top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, the second leading exporter of potassium, and the third-largest exporter of phosphorous fertilizer.
• Nearly 50 countries get at least 30% of their wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia, and 26 of those countries source more than 50% of their wheat imports from the two countries. 
• Many of these countries are located in Africa or are relatively close to Russia geographically. For example, Eritrea got about 55% of its wheat from Russia and the remainder from Ukraine, while Somalia obtained over 55% of its wheat from Ukraine and the rest from Russia. Seychelles got all of its wheat from Ukraine in 2021, while Libya and Pakistan each bought more than two-thirds of their wheat from Ukraine as well.
• An analysis by the FAO found that in the short-term, prices will rise for wheat (+8.7%), corn (+8.2%), other coarse grains (+9.6%), and oilseeds (+10.5%). That, in turn, will cause undernourishment to rise by 7.6 million in 2022. If the conflict continues into the medium-term, prices for those agricultural goods are projected to continue to rise and an additional 500,000 people will face undernourishment. 

World Food Program

• World Food Program Executive Director David Beasley told CBS Face the Nation that the WFP feeds about 125 million people on any given day, week, or month, and it has reached 2.3 million people in Ukraine over the course of a month. Beasley said that if farmers aren’t able to get back into their fields and vital agricultural shipping lanes through the Black Sea aren’t opened the food crisis will worsen:

“This is a very serious problem if we don’t get the farmers back in the fields, not just a few, but all the farmers back into the fields. So they can plant, they can put fertilizer our, they can harvest… The Black Sea is shut down right now. That’s the basis and the way by which 400 million people get their food from Ukraine right now. So that’s got to be opened up.” 

• The WFP is spending about $71 million more per month right now due to rising food and energy prices and faces a $9 billion funding shortfall, which has caused the organization to cut some of its rations in wartorn regions around the world. Beasley said: 

“We’re going to need an extra few billion this year. But if we don’t get it, you’re going to have war, conflict, destabilization, which is going to cost a thousand times that… When we don’t have enough money, well, guess what? We have to choose which children eat and which children don’t eat.”

• For its efforts in Ukraine specifically, the WFP reports that it needs about $590 million in funding for the March to June period this year to scale up its assistance both within Ukraine and in neighboring countries. The WFP is planning to reach a total of 6 million people in Ukraine over the next three months through a combination of cash-based transfers and in-kind food distributions; in addition to helping Ukrainians who’ve fled the country as refugees. It’s also working with other humanitarian organizations to ship relief in hard-to-reach locations near intense fighting.

You can read more about the WFP’s efforts in Ukraine here and you can donate here.

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— Eric Revell

(Photo Credit: iStock.com / Vadym Terelyuk)