Finland & Sweden Move Towards NATO Membership Despite Russia's Threats

What’s the story?

• The governments of Finland and Sweden are moving closer to formally applying for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance despite Russia repeatedly threatening the two Nordic countries with “serious military and political consequences” if they move to join NATO.
• Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson met Wednesday in Stockholm, Sweden, to discuss their countries’ shared security interests. While both Finland and Sweden remained officially non-aligned militarily throughout the Cold War, the countries have worked closely with NATO on military training and exercises to improve interoperability and made contributions to the NATO Response Force.
• Public support for NATO membership in Finland and Sweden began to rise after Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine and invaded the Donbas in 2014, but remained less than a majority at the time according to polls. Since Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, support for NATO membership has grown to outright majorities in Finland and Sweden that trend to supermajorities if both countries join the alliance simultaneously.
• Marin said Wednesday that Finland will make a decision on a bid to become a NATO member “within weeks” rather than months, while Andersson now reportedly wants Sweden to apply for membership this June.
• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in January that things “can go very quickly” for Finland and Sweden if they want to join. Last week, Stoltenberg said that he expects all 30 NATO allies would welcome Finland and Sweden if they choose to join because NATO has “worked with them, trained with them for many, many years.” He also said the allies will work to bolster Finland and Sweden’s security during the application process, adding: 

“We will find ways to also address the concerns they may have about this interim period between the time they’ve applied and until that last ratification has taken place.”

How do countries join NATO?

• NATO has gone through eight rounds of enlargement since its formation from 12 founding member states in 1949 to its current 30 members. Applicant countries must adhere to the principles of “democracy, individual liberty, and the rule of law”, in addition to being able to contribute to the security of the alliance. At this time, only European countries may apply to join.
• NATO members must unanimously agree to invite any new country into the alliance. Once invited, applicant countries receive a membership action plan with steps to take to join the alliance. Then an accession protocol to the North Atlantic Treaty must be signed unanimously by NATO members to allow the country to join the alliance. 
• The accession process may require ratification by a member country’s legislative body, as is the case in the U.S. where a two-thirds majority vote is required in the Senate to ratify the change to the treaty. Once all NATO countries have completed their ratification processes, the applicant country can formally join.

What would Finland & Sweden bring to NATO?

• The Finnish and Swedish militaries are highly competent and their governments are set to up the ante on defense spending. Finland announced a 70% boost to its defense budget for 2022 while Sweden’s government is planning to boost defense spending to the NATO benchmark of 2% “as soon as possible.”
• Both of the countries’ militaries already have a great degree of interoperability with NATO given the years of mutual training exercises and in some cases a shared defense industrial base. For example, Finland’s military flies American-made F/A-18 Super Hornets and recently agreed to replace those with the F-35 Lightning II jets that many NATO militaries are currently operating or will eventually field.
• The proximity of Finland and Sweden to the three Baltic states ― Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania ― means that their geography would make them an integral part of NATO’s defensive plans in the Baltic Sea region. The Swedish island of Gotland, strategically located halfway between the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and the city of St. Petersburg, is considered a possible Russian invasion target if Putin attempts military action in the Baltic. 
• NATO’s mutual defense guarantee under Article V would deter Russian aggression in the region by raising the stakes of a Russian attack against an alliance member.
• The strategic impact of Finland and Sweden joining NATO would also be seen further north as they are two of the eight Arctic countries and five of the others are members of NATO (the only non-NATO Arctic country is Russia). 

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— Eric Revell

(Photo Credit: U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Alyssa Weeks via Flickr / Public Domain)