What's a No-Fly Zone and Why Do the U.S. & NATO Oppose One Over Ukraine?

What’s the story?

• The U.S. and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies have thus far been unwilling to put a no-fly zone into effect over Ukraine to prevent Russian aircraft from carrying out airstrikes despite the pleas of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
• Zelensky has repeatedly urged the U.S. and NATO to “close the sky and stop the bombing” of his country by Russia’s military, which has carried out airstrikes against Ukrainian forces and bombed civilian areas. He told Sky News last week: 

“Believe me, if it’s prolonged this way, you will see… they will close the sky but we will lose millions of people. The Third World War will start and only then you will make a no-fly zone, but it will be too late.”

• White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki explained at a press conference on March 3rd that President Joe Biden opposes a no-fly zone because of the risk it could result in escalating to a direct conflict between the U.S. and its NATO allies against Russia, telling reporters:

“Again, the reason why that has not been a step the President has been willing to take or we have been interested in taking is because a no-fly zone requires implementation. It would require, essentially, the U.S. military shooting down Russian planes and causing a — prompting a potential direct war with Russia, something — the exact step that we want to avoid.”

• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on March 4th that while Russia’s war against Ukraine is “horrific” and causing “human suffering” and “destruction at a scale we haven’t seen in Europe since the Second World War” a no-fly zone would raise the risk the war escalating to involve NATO countries across Europe:

“And of course, the only way to implement a no-fly zone is to send NATO planes, fighter planes into Ukrainian airspace, and then impose that no-fly zone by shooting down Russian planes. And our assessment is that we understand the desperation. But we also believe that if we did that, we'll end up with something that could end in a full-fledged war in Europe, involving many more countries, and causing much more human suffering. So that's the reason why we make this painful decision to impose heavy sanctions, provide significant support, stepping up support. But at the same time not involving NATO forces directly in the conflict in Ukraine, neither on the ground, or in their airspace.”

• Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened that if the U.S. and NATO declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine he “will view them as participants of the military conflict, and it would not matter what members they are.”

What is a no-fly zone?

• A no-fly zone (NFZ) is a military operation designed to prevent unauthorized aircraft from operating in the airspace over a defined geographic area. Usually, fighter aircraft armed with air-to-air missiles take the lead in enforcing an NFZ because while ground-based anti-aircraft systems can aid in the effort, they face constraints in terms of their range and mobility. 
• Fighter aircraft often have shorter ranges and require aerial refueling from tanker aircraft to continue their combat air patrol (CAP) over an NFZ for longer durations. Fighters may also need battle management assistance from Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft, which have advanced radar capabilities. Tanker aircraft are relatively defenseless and may have to fly into contested airspace, although AWACS can operate further away at the expense of less comprehensive radar coverage of the NFZ.  
• Aside from the threat of enemy aircraft intruding into an NFZ, there’s also the risk of the enemy’s ground-based surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems threatening fighter aircraft on patrol or supporting aircraft. That may require suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) missions with electronic jamming aircraft the SAM radars or airstrikes or missile strikes against those sites to eliminate the threat posed to aircraft in contested airspace.
• If an allied aircraft is shot down or experiences a mechanical failure while attempting to enforce an NFZ, a combat search and rescue (CSAR) mission may be launched to retrieve the downed crewmembers. This would entail the use of helicopters and other aircraft serving an escort or support role.

Examples of No-Fly Zones

• According to the Congressional Research Service, there have been four declared NFZ operations in history that the U.S. has taken part in: 
• Operation Deny Flight was the first combat engagement for NATO and initially involved an NFZ over Bosnia and Herzegovina from April 1993 to December 1995. It began as a means of preventing Croatia and Serbia from making unauthorized incursions into Bosnian airspace, but in April 1994 it expanded to close air support missions launching airstrikes against Bosnian Serbs ground forces that were targeting United Nations forces on the ground. NATO forces flew 100,420 sorties to enforce the NFZ, during which three manned NATO aircraft were shot down (including an American F-16 flown by Capt. Scott O’Grady), two crashed, and nine NATO personnel were killed. 
• The U.S. imposed two NFZs over Iraq between the end of the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the beginning of the Iraq War in 2003. Operation Northern Watch occurred north of the 36th Parallel over Iraq, and required the use of about 50 aircraft and 1,400 personnel at any given time. Operation Southern Watch occurred south of the 32nd Parallel and later the 33rd Parallel over Iraq, and required about 5,000 troops (this YouTube video depicts some of the efforts to enforce the NFZ during Operation Southern Watch). No manned coalition aircraft were downed in either NFZ over Iraq. However, the Khobar Tower bombing was a terrorist attack by Hezbollah in 1996 at a housing complex in Saudi Arabia where coalition forces were quartered which killed 19 American airmen and wounded 372 coalition personnel.
• Operation Odyssey Dawn was put in effect over Libya in 2011 during the Libyan Civil War to prevent airstrikes by Muammar Gaddafi’s government forces on anti-Gaddafi forces. It lasted from March 19 to March 31, 2011, and involved air and missile strikes against Libyan airfields, SAM systems, and Libyan ground forces. NATO continued to enforce the NFZ along with a naval blockade and airstrikes against Libyan government forces with the intent of protecting civilians until October 31, 2011, as Operation Unified Protector.
• Unlike those no-fly zones, which were imposed against adversaries with inferior air power compared to the U.S. and NATO, an NFZ over Ukraine would pit them directly against the Russian military which retains substantial airpower and SAM systems despite the challenges it has encountered in establishing air superiority over Ukraine.

— Eric Revell

(Photo Credit: U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Luke Milano via Flickr / Public Domain)