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Civic Register
| 2.11.22

U.S. Believes Russia May Launch Invasion of Ukraine ‘At Any Time’ - Americans Warned to Leave Ukraine Immediately

Are you concerned about Russia invading Ukraine?

What’s the story?

  • The U.S. government is warning that Russia may begin an invasion of Ukraine “at any time” and is urging Americans in Ukraine to leave the country in the next 24 to 48 hours or “as quickly as possible” because the U.S. military won’t be able to assist in their evacuation if Russia launches a full-scale invasion.
  • National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke at a White House press briefing Friday, where he warned the threat of Russian invasion is “immediate” and could begin “any day now”. Sullivan added, “There is a credible prospect that a Russian military action would take place even before the end of the Olympics.”
  • He pushed back on questions regarding reports by several news outlets that said U.S. and NATO defense officials have determined that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has made the decision to launch his invasion of Ukraine next week. He said the U.S. government’s view, which it has shared with NATO allies, is that American officials don’t know that Putin has made any kind of a final decision or has definitively given an order to proceed with an invasion.
  • If Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it will likely be preceded by a pre-emptive bombardment using aircraft, artillery, and ballistic missiles that “could obviously kill civilians without regard to their nationality.” It may also involve cyberattacks and electronic warfare that would impede or deny access to means of transportation and disrupt communications. Sullivan emphasized that the U.S. military won’t be sent “into a warzone to rescue people who could have left now but chose not to.”
  • President Joe Biden met with transatlantic leaders on Friday including heads of state from key NATO member countries, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, and the leaders of the European Commission and European Council. Biden departed D.C. for Camp David without speaking to the press about the situation while Sullivan was at the press briefing. Biden will reportedly speak with Putin tomorrow, and the Russian leader is also going to speak separately with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Western Countries Urge Citizens to Leave Ukraine Now

  • The U.S. began encouraging Americans to leave Ukraine last week, but is now doing so with increased urgency as Sullivan said Friday, “Any American in Ukraine should leave as soon as possible and in any event, the next 24-48 hours.” 
  • American citizens who are in Ukraine are being asked by the State Dept. to fill out an online form so that they can better communicate with you, and completing this form “is especially important if you plan to remain in Ukraine.” The form can be found here.
  • About 7,000 American citizens and dual nationals who are in Ukraine have registered with the State Dept. and there may be an additional 25,000 in the country. They are being urged to leave by commercial flights while they are available or to make other arrangements to leave as soon as possible. Embassy officials are personally calling Americans in Ukraine to advise them to leave and help coordinate their departure.
  • If an invasion occurs and transport by air or rail becomes impractical, they will be encouraged to proceed by land to the west toward Ukraine’s borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. Americans could also flee Ukraine to Moldova, but shouldn’t enter that country through the breakaway region of Transnistria, where the U.S. Embassy has limited access.
  • The U.S. isn’t the only government urging its citizens to leave. The United Kingdom’s Foreign Office is advising British citizens to “leave now while commercial means are still available.” Israel, Japan, and Norway are also urging their citizens to leave as soon as possible. The European Union is reducing the footprint of its diplomatic staff in Ukraine to the bare minimum, while The Netherlands is moving its diplomatic post from the capital city of Kyiv to Lviv in Western Ukraine and also urging citizens to depart. American observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, who have been monitoring the conflict and ceasefire violations in Eastern Ukraine, are also being evacuated.

What’s happening with Russia’s military buildup?

  • Russia’s military has amassed more than 130,000 troops along Russia’s border with Ukraine, in occupied Crimea, and in neighboring Belarus under the guise of military exercises. The buildup currently includes about 60% of Russia’s ground combat power, including many units that have been moved from the country’s Far East. 
  • The buildup also includes logistical units beyond what would be needed to sustain standard exercises, indicating that Russia at minimum has built up the capacity to sustain combat operations. Open-source satellite images taken in recent days show that field hospitals are being assembled at Russian military staging areas near Ukraine’s border. 
  • Additionally, the Russian naval presence currently in the Black Sea is the largest since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, while elements of Russia’s Baltic Fleet and Pacific Fleet are operating in the Mediterranean Sea.
  • Taken together, Russia has assembled forces that could threaten Ukraine from several avenues of attack, as U.S. intelligence has identified nine potential routes that Russia could take into Ukraine if a full-scale invasion is launched. A Russian invasion would be the largest military conflict that Europe has seen since the end of World War II.

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— Eric Revell

(Photo Credit: Dmitry Terekhov via Flickr / Creative Commons)