Previewing 2022 in Congress

What’s the story?

• Lawmakers are set to return to the Capitol next week to start their 2022 work period and have several significant items on their to-do list before the midterm elections arrive and the 117th Congress draws to a close after the end of the year. Here’s a look at some legislative storylines to follow when your lawmakers get back to work in the new year:

Build Back Better Rebuilt?

• The centerpiece of Democrats’ legislative agenda in the 117th Congress, the future of the multi-trillion-dollar social spending plan is in doubt amid opposition by moderate Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and potentially other centrist Democrats.
• Manchin has expressed concern with the impact of increased spending on inflation, which reached a 39-year high in November. He has also taken issue with the use of “budget gimmicks” like sunsetting programs after a few years to keep the bill’s cost estimate lower even though there will be an effort to extend those programs at a much higher cost. Other issues between moderates and progressives include the size of the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, corporate tax rates, and more. 
• The Biden administration and Democratic leadership in Congress may seek to rework the package further to reach an agreement with Manchin. But for the Build Back Better Act to clear both chambers, Democrats need the support of all 50 of their senators and can lose the support of no more than three members in the House, so there is very little margin for error with either the moderate or progressive wings of their party.
• Progressives had been hopeful that the Senate parliamentarian would permit Democrats to include immigration reform provisions in the Build Back Better Act, but it was determined that their latest proposal violated the Senate’s rules regarding what can be included in budget reconciliation bills. Some House Democrats had insisted they would only vote for the package if it included immigration reform, so they may face a difficult decision if they’re unable to find a way to address that issue while complying with reconciliation rules.

Annual Appropriations

• Congress has yet to enact the annual appropriations bills that provide discretionary funding to federal agencies for the full fiscal year 2022, so lawmakers face a deadline of February 18th to either do so or enact another temporary stopgap bill to avert a shutdown.
• Democrats have hoped that their majorities in both chambers plus President Joe Biden occupying the White House would allow them to enact discretionary higher spending levels. However, appropriations bills need 60 votes in the Senate to overcome the legislative filibuster, which means spending levels will need to be negotiated on a bipartisan basis with Republicans.
• If Democrats and Republicans are unable to meet in the middle on spending levels, Congress will have to resort to more short-term continuing resolutions to extend federal appropriations at previously-enacted levels, or else the government will experience a lapse and a partial government shutdown will ensue.

Filibuster Flashpoints

• Democrats’ partisan policy priorities have largely been stymied in the Senate because of the chamber’s legislative filibuster, which requires 60 votes to limit debate and allow a bill to pass with a simple majority. The chamber is evenly-divided with 50 senators in both the Democratic caucus and the Republican conference, so 10 GOP senators have the power to allow most of Democrats’ legislative proposals to move forward or to block them. 
• With the Senate’s makeup unlikely to change in the current Congress, some Democrats have urged for the “nuclear option” to be deployed to eliminate the legislative filibuster despite their past support and use of the filibuster.
• Several of the Democrats’ bills that cleared the House on party-line votes have failed to overcome the filibuster, including legislation to make it easier for employees to sue their legislation to make it easier for employees to sue employers for gender-based wage discrimination and multiple versions of election reform.
• It’s likely that there will be votes on more of Democrats’ bills that fail to overcome the filibuster in 2022, which will intensify calls for the filibuster to be eliminated despite the opposition of moderates like Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), who vowed to preserve the 60-vote threshold despite pressure from within their party.

— Eric Revell

(Photo Credit: iStock.com / Wil Etheredge)