What's Next for Infrastructure in Congress?

What’s the story?

• Last week, a bipartisan group of lawmakers announced a deal with the Biden administration on a $579 billion infrastructure package and congressional Democrats indicated that they will advance a second infrastructure bill through the reconciliation process along party-lines.
• Shortly after the bipartisan deal was announced, Biden said that its enactment was conditional on the passage of Democrats’ bill:  “If this is the only thing that comes to me I’m not signing. It’s in tandem.” Over the weekend, Biden released a statement to clarify that he is not threatening to veto the bipartisan package unless Democrats pass their reconciliation bill too:

“At a press conference after announcing the bipartisan agreement, I indicated that I would refuse to sign the infrastructure bill if it was sent to me without my Families Plan and other priorities, including clean energy. That statement understandably upset some Republicans, who do not see the two plans as linked; they are hoping to defeat my Families Plan—and do not want their support for the infrastructure plan to be seen as aiding passage of the Families Plan. My comments also created the impression that I was issuing a veto threat on the very plan I had just agreed to, which was certainly not my intent. So to be clear: our bipartisan agreement does not preclude Republicans from attempting to defeat my Families Plan; likewise, they should have no objections to my devoted efforts to pass that Families Plan and other proposals in tandem.”

• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) signaled that she will have the House hold off on passing the bipartisan bill until it also has the reconciliation bill in hand and said at a press conference, “There ain’t gonna be no bipartisan bill, unless we are going to have the reconciliation bill.” Pelosi reiterated that stance on Wednesday.

What’s next in Congress?

• The debate over both the bipartisan infrastructure package and Democrats’ reconciliation bill will move into the fast lane when Congress returns from its Fourth of July recess.
• The $579 billion bipartisan infrastructure package still needs to be drafted into legislative text but depending on how quickly that process goes it could receive a floor vote in the first half of July. It’s likely the Senate will vote on the package first to send it to the House, which could amend it and send it back to the upper chamber for a second vote to avoid any blue-slip issues.
• Democrats’ infrastructure bill that will be considered using the reconciliation process will take longer for Congress to process as both chambers must first adopt a budget resolution with reconciliation instructions.
• That can’t occur until moderate and progressive Democrats reach a compromise amongst themselves on the scope and size of their reconciliation bill. Moderates like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) have pushed for the reconciliation bill to be in the neighborhood of $2 trillion, whereas Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has said it could be as large as $6 trillion.
• Reaching a consensus among Democrats on the details of the reconciliation bill will be crucial given their tenuous majorities in both chambers of Congress. They will need the votes of all 50 senators in the Democratic caucus plus Vice President Kamala Harris to move the bill through the Senate, and House Democrats can only lose four votes from their ranks and still muster a majority when all lawmakers are present.
• Adopting the budget resolution will be a somewhat time-consuming process, as the Senate will hold a vote-a-rama in which senators can force votes on any amendments they want to offer. Once the budget resolution is approved, the infrastructure reconciliation bill itself can be considered and will also undergo a vote-a-rama in the Senate.
• Congress may struggle to find the floor time to get either or both of the infrastructure bills to Biden’s desk before lawmakers break for the August recess, although alterations to the schedule are possible. 
• After it departs on Thursday, the House is only scheduled to be in session for floor business during the last two weeks of July, while the Senate will be in session for the first week of August. The House isn’t scheduled to return from recess for floor business until September 20th, while the Senate will return a week earlier.

— Eric Revell

(Photo Credit: Biden: Gage Skidmore via Flickr / Creative Commons | Capitol: ttarasiuk via Flickr / Creative Commons)