Georgia Runoffs to Decide Control of the Senate

What’s the story?

• Control of the U.S. Senate is set to be determined by a pair of runoff races to be held in Georgia on January 5, 2021, where a pair of Republican incumbents, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, will look to hold off challenges from Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, respectively. 
• Republicans have secured 50 Senate seats for 117th Congress so far, while Democrats sit at 48 seats. Barring any surprises in the ongoing recounts, recanvasses, and legal challenges, Democrats will control at least the White House and the House of Representatives in 2021. 
• If Democrats win both of the Georgia Senate seats, they would be able to use Vice President-elect Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote to advance elements of their agenda and perhaps eliminate the legislative filibuster and pack the Supreme Court with liberal justices.
• Republicans are in position to hold their majority despite having to defend 23 seats and record-setting spending by Democrats across the highly contested Senate seats. Given the stakes, the Georgia runoffs may ultimately set new records for spending, as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) vowed, “Now we take Georgia, then we change America!”

State of Play in the Peach State

• Georgia voters have spent recent months living in a deluge of campaign ads, and that is set to continue through the January 5, 2021 runoffs. Here’s a look at what happened in the initial voting for both seats.
• Georgia Regular Election: Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) outperformed Jon Ossoff (D) by 1.75%, or 86,637 votes, but fell 0.29 percentage points shy of the 50% he needed to avoid the runoff. Ossoff has raised $32.8 million for the campaign to date ($13 raised per vote received in the first contest), versus Perdue’s $21.4 million for the campaign to date ($8 per vote received in the first contest). Including outside spending in support of both candidates, this race cost roughly $150 million so far.
• Perdue ran slightly ahead of President Donald Trump, receiving 775 more votes than the president on the initial ballot, but was 13,127 votes shy of what he needed to hit 50% and avoid the runoff. Ossoff ran behind former Vice President Joe Biden by 85,862 votes.
• Ossoff is no stranger to expensive political campaigns, as he was defeated by Rep. Karen Handel (R-GA) in a 2017 special election for Georgia’s 7th congressional district, which at a total cost of more than $50 million was the most expensive in the history of the House of Representatives.
• Georgia Special Election: Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) faced off with Raphael Warnock (D) in a 20-way primary and finished in the top two to advance to the runoff. Warnock has raised $21.9 million for the campaign to date, while Loeffler has raised $28.2 million. This is a special election to serve the remainder of retired Senator Johnny Isakson’s (R-GA) seat, which will be up for re-election in 2022.
• Historically, Republican candidates in Georgia improve upon their vote share in runoffs, which occurred in seven of the last eight runoffs for statewide races, but time will tell if that trend continues given that control of the Senate will be on the line.

What happened in the other competitive Senate races?

REPUBLICAN HOLDS

• South Carolina: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) defeated Jaime Harrison (D) by 10.28%, or 258,309 votes. Harrison raised $108.9 million ($98 raised per vote received) ― becoming the first candidate to raise over $100 million for a campaign ― versus Graham’s $74 million ($66 raised per vote received). Including outside spending in support of both candidates, this race cost an estimated $215 million.
• Kentucky: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) defeated Amy McGrath (D) by 19.53%, or 417,000 votes. McGrath raised a total of $90 million ($110 raised per vote received), whereas McConnell’s fundraising totaled $57 million ($46 raised per vote received). Including outside spending in support of both candidates, this race cost about $150 million.
• Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) defeated Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon (D) by 9.37%, or 71,6148 votes. Gideon raised a total of $69.5 million ($203 raised per vote received) compared to Collins’s fundraising total of $27 million ($65 raised per vote received). Including outside spending in support of both candidates, this election cost about $170 million.  
• Iowa: Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) defeated Theresa Greenfield (D) by 6.65%, or 111,081 votes. Greenfield raised a total of $47.5 million ($63 raised per vote received) compared to Ernst’s fundraising total of $23.7 million ($27 raised per vote received). Including outside spending in support of both candidates, this race cost an estimated $225 million.
• North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) defeated former State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) by 1.74%, or 94,479 votes. Cunningham raised $47.5 million ($18 raised per vote received) compared to Tillis’s $22.4 million ($8 raised per vote received). Including outside spending in support of both candidates, this race cost an estimated $271 million.
• Montana: Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) defeated outgoing Gov. Steve Bullock (D) by 10%, or 59,929 votes. Bullock raised over $43.3 million ($160 raised per vote received) versus Daines’s $27.1 million ($82 raised per vote received). Including outside spending in support of both candidates, this race cost an estimated $175 million.
• Texas: Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) defeated MJ Hegar (D) by 9.81%, or 1,087,229 votes. Hegar raised $24.2 million ($5 raised per vote received) compared to Cornyn’s $30.9 million ($5 raised per vote received).

DEMOCRAT HOLDS

• Michigan: Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) defeated John James (R-MI) by 1.54%, or 84,327 votes. Peters raised $43 million ($15 raised per vote received) versus James’s $37 million ($14 raised per vote received). Including outside spending in support of both candidates, this race cost an estimated $160 million.

FLIPPED SEATS

• Alabama: Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) defeated Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) by 20.46%, or 471,395 votes. Jones raised $26.7 million ($29 raised per vote received) compared to Tuberville’s $8.2 million ($6 raised per vote received).
• Arizona: Mark Kelly (D-AZ) defeated Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) by 2.38%, or 79,231 votes. Kelly raised $89.8 million ($52 raised per vote received) versus McSally’s $56.9 million ($35 raised per vote received). Including outside spending in support of both candidates, this race cost an estimated $205 million.
• Colorado: Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) defeated Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) by 9.32%, or 297,471 votes. Hickenlooper raised $39.8 million ($23 raised per vote received) compared to Gardner’s $26.5 million ($19 raised per vote received). Including outside spending in support of both candidates, this race cost an estimated $80 million.

— Eric Revell

(Photo Credit: Perdue: Gage Skidmore via Flickr / Creative Commons | Ossoff: jramspott via Flickr / Creative Commons | Loeffler: USDAgov via Flickr / Public Domain | Warnock: raphael390 via Flickr / Public Domain)